Nifty as on Aug 14, 2012

Today was a big day with inflation data coming... And Hurray..! For the time, inflation data paved us some way north :-)
Now for some technicals

We have just breached the long downtrend line that started off from Nov 2010...
Here is a closer view

Here looking at the way we have crossed the major resistance so easily makes me think that we are heading north... Look at the way, how we are making lows inline with the immediate uptrend line.. As I am speaking, EU and US are in deep green... Any pullbacks is a buy now.. Those who have short positions, you definitely gotta think twice before staying short... Coz, this time i hope, RBI would be convinced to cut rates... Good days ahead :-)

State Bank of India as on Aug 13, 2012

I have expected shorting in SBIN today... But it turned out the other way.. 

My first mantra in Stock market is "Trend is my friend"...

I strictly (still trying my best) follow that... I dont go against the trend (with some exceptions)...

We cant outsmart the market.. 

So i take part in possible fresh longs and short covers in an uptrend...

And in the downtrend, take part in fresh shorts and long unwinding....

Today's SBIN chart gave a green sign for longs...

Sbin formed a BULLISH HAMMER candle... Look at the placement of the candle right after a downtrend... This can possibly change the trend of the stock... Now i have a reason to be bullish on Sbin whoever says what (downgrade, underperform)...!!!

Fibonacci Pattern on Nifty

Applying Fibonacci Retracements gives insight on resistance and support level and it kind of scares me given the fact that Nifty is lingering around the 100% retracement level. Nifty is at the make or break level and closing above 5350 gives hope of further uptrend.

But at this moment all the major indices are in red.

Chart of the day - Financial technologies

I was getting excited just by looking at Financial technologies chart...
Because, it was forming a CUP AND HANDLE pattern which is very bullish :-)
These patterns are rare.... And this s an incredible authentic cup and handle pattern...

Now the support stands at the trim which would be ard 780-790...
You can trade the pattern having a stop ard 780-790....

Nifty as on Aug 13, 2012

Today, we started off on a flat note and stayed flat to red to occasional green peep for straight 5 hours... But around 2, when many of us were yarning, market had an adrenalin rush..!
And we closed on a higher note with 27 pts up on Nifty..
Now wat does the chart tells us..??!!

• We found support at the uptrend line..
• We are exactly in line with the recent top..
  
• The volume traded is not very convincing..
• Upside resistance for tomo may be around 5370..
• On the downside, 5329 may be the immediate support on closing basis..

 

While am writing this, EU ended red and US is still trading in red..
Again gonna be a flat opening..
But but but INFLATION data is coming out tomo...
Why cant these data wait..???!!! Again a party pooper pops out when things are getting to ease a little...

Sterlite Industries as on Aug 10, 2012

Sterlite chart really looks very interesting..

But again, a cautious note here... Nifty is in a critical resistance.. If nifty manages to break the resistance, Bharti and Sterlite could be a good buy in dips..

State Bank of India as on Aug 10, 2012

Here s the curious case of sbin..

The chart is self explanatory...
Tomo too am expecting few short build up.. It must find a support ard 1820 where the shorters would exhaust paving way for short covers...

Bharti airtel as on August 10, 2012

Bharti airtel has been literally struggling for months.. Here the chart explains all

Although it is written in all the websites and books that double top must have a time gap of more than a month, i would like to say, A Double top is a Double top (I even trade double tops in 1 min chart)... Now the trough is the resistance... Look at all the feeble bulls ard the resistance... This s a Go signal for shorters on every rise.. And the rest is history now :-)

Ok... Now the stock was shorted heavily on Aug 8 (when results were announced)..

On Aug 9, again the stock tanked ard 6.5%... But now the OI (deliverable quantity in cash) is relatively less than the previous day though the volumes traded were equal.... So few must have accepted defeat and closed their longs while shorts were added as well..

On Aug 10, the stock was consolidating and closed flat to red.. And the OI was very less.. Here, few longs should have been closed or few or very few shorts would have been added..

Now with shorters getting exhausted, its time for some short covering rally...

Luckily the stock is now at its 2 year support.. Take a look..

Long term investors can buy now with a stop ard 240-250.... But as I said nifty is at a critical resistance, its better to let things settle a little bit..

I am just a normal trader... But i love to see things from a different perspective.. I took my inspiration for technical analysis from traderji forum which many of you from India would have hit.. As I am speaking, I really have not read so much about technicals.. Because, i strongly believe that "Experience is the best teacher".. How much we read or study doesnt matter here..its about how much we understand... I am writing this blog for beginners who go blind picking up some calls randomly.. Please dont... Understand the market and go with the flow...

Nifty as on 10th August, 2012

We have been in a primary downtrend from Nov 2010 which we have breached (atleast thought) in February 2012 with high volumes.. So even-though we were losing daily, we found good support at the trendline.. Unfortunately we were forming Descending triangle pattern with declining volumes.. If the volume were not declining, this would have been a different story.. *Sigh*.. Okay.. Now this uptrend didnt last long and just made a pivotal high... And now v r facing a crucial resistance in the downtrend line...

Ok.. Now lets have a closer look..

Here comes a double top to spice things up... The immediate resistance now stands at the previous high we made at 5347...Here am not even talking abt the open price or the high of above 5347... We must close above the mark..

Ok... Now consider that we close above the mark.... Are we ready to say a Hurray..?? Not yet... Not so  soon... V still are gonna face a resistance from the downtrend line drawn from Nov 2010

I would like to keep a stop on all my longs at this point and leave the head ache to experts...!

Now technicals  aside...

FII have poured in a lot of money this month...

We just had the worst IIP data..

I am not overly bearish or bullish... But I would be cautious at this point not to enter fresh longs and keep a stop loss at all my longs...